光華講壇——社會(huì)名流與企業(yè)家論壇第6872期
主題：Dual-dimensional Market Interdependence雙重維度市場(chǎng)聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng)
主講人：中國(guó)人民大學(xué)財(cái)政金融學(xué)院 劉勇政教授
主持人：財(cái)政稅務(wù)學(xué)院院長(zhǎng) 李建軍教授
時(shí)間：3月24日13:15-15:00
地點(diǎn)：柳林校區(qū)格致樓918會(huì)議室
主辦單位：財(cái)政稅務(wù)學(xué)院 科研處
主講人簡(jiǎn)介：
劉勇政，中國(guó)人民大學(xué)吳玉章講席教授、國(guó)家級(jí)人才計(jì)劃入選者。研究方向?yàn)檎g財(cái)政關(guān)系和稅收政策分析，成果發(fā)表于《中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)》《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》《政治學(xué)研究》、AEJ: Economic Policy、Review of Economics and Statistics、 Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Urban Economics、Public Administration、Governance等國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)期刊。主持國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目、國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目等項(xiàng)目。目前兼任International Tax and Public Finance等期刊副主編。
內(nèi)容提要：
This study examines how firms respond to export tax increases by adjusting sales across product and destination markets. We first built a multi-product multi-destination model to demonstrate how capacity-constrained firms translate negative tax shocks to specific product-destination markets into sales expansion to other product and destination markets. By exploiting a quasi-experimental export tax change setting and applying detailed firm and product-level trade data, we find strong evidence of this dual-dimensional market interdependence effect on Chinese exporters. Specifically, the results indicate that an increase in export tax for treated products of the firms is accompanied by significant increases in the firms’ export sales for the untreated products and total domestic sales. Further analysis demonstrates a decline in the marginal cost of production for treated firms in the post-treatment period, which affirms that production capacity constraints comprise the key mechanism for the detected market interdependence effects.
本研究考察了企業(yè)如何通過(guò)在產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)與出口目的地市場(chǎng)之間調(diào)整銷(xiāo)售額，來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)出口關(guān)稅上調(diào)的沖擊。我們首先構(gòu)建了一個(gè)多產(chǎn)品、多目的地理論模型，用以說(shuō)明產(chǎn)能約束下的企業(yè)如何將特定產(chǎn)品—目的地市場(chǎng)的負(fù)面稅收沖擊，轉(zhuǎn)化為對(duì)其他產(chǎn)品和目的地市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)售額擴(kuò)張。借助準(zhǔn)自然實(shí)驗(yàn)性質(zhì)的出口關(guān)稅調(diào)整場(chǎng)景，并運(yùn)用高度細(xì)化的企業(yè)——產(chǎn)品層面貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)，我們?yōu)橹袊?guó)出口企業(yè)存在雙重維度的市場(chǎng)聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng)提供了穩(wěn)健的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)。具體而言，結(jié)果顯示：當(dāng)企業(yè)受影響產(chǎn)品的出口關(guān)稅上升時(shí)，其未受影響產(chǎn)品的出口銷(xiāo)售額以及國(guó)內(nèi)總銷(xiāo)售額均出現(xiàn)顯著增長(zhǎng)。進(jìn)一步分析表明，政策實(shí)施后受影響企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)邊際成本有所下降，這證實(shí)產(chǎn)能約束是本文所識(shí)別的市場(chǎng)聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng)的核心機(jī)制。
